Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Why Rudy Wins in '08 (UPDATED)

Conventional wisdom seems to be that while Rudy Giuliani would be a great Presidential candidate in the next general election, he doesn't have a chance in the primaries.


Sure, Rudy won't be beloved by the people who voted for Pat Buchannon, but exactly how many people is that? The great myth among inside the beltway wonks is that rednecks are intolerant. And it seems that no matter how much the actual data flies in the face of the myth, the wonks refuse to abandon it.

Listen; John F. Kennedy supposedly couldn't win in the South because he was Catholic. Well, guess what? He won. Reagan's marital history was supposed to be a show stopper. Well, guess what? He won, too. Clinton's "bimbo problem" supposedly made him poison to religious voters. Well, guess what? He won anyway, the second time by a bigger margin than the first.

History shows the hicks aren't as puritanical/prudish/racist/whatever as the wonkers keep telling us they are.

And of course, every poll taken by every organization shows Rudy handily kicking the ass or any prospective alternative who doesn't happen to be an unmarried black woman.

Earth to wonks: this ain't your father's Redneck who's going to be deciding the next Republican Presidential contender. The Republican "base" is more interested in electing someone who can actually run the country than they are in electing a babysitter. Sure, Joe Bob and Mary Sue may not want Rudy dating their daughter, but I think that the man who made New York City a safe place for her to live is going to get some major respect.

Actually, I have a sneaking suspicion that the "electability" meme is half-consciously designed to keep the parties from fielding the best candidates. (Yes, I'm including potential Democratic candidates as well.) It's either that or it's some really annoying institutional bigotry against the residents of flyover country.

Run, Rudy. If you do, maybe I'll take some time off and stump for you down south. I've got the right accent, and I think the country is going to need you at the wheel in the coming years.

UPDATE: Ryan Sager provides some evidence supporting my thesis.


Anonymous M E-L said...

Will his two ex-wives stump for him, ya think? :)

Seriously, though, I think he's "electable" but I'm not sure if he'll win. The Kerik thing gives me doubts.

11:41 AM  

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